Implied Probability Explained
Convert betting odds to probability percentages and understand what the sportsbook thinks will happen.
Enter positive or negative American odds
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It represents what the sportsbook believes is the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring, plus their built-in profit margin (the "vig" or "juice").
The Formula
Implied Probability = |Odds| ÷ (|Odds| + 100) × 100
Example: -150
150 ÷ (150 + 100) × 100 = 60%
A -150 favorite implies a 60% chance of winning.
Why This Matters
Understanding implied probability is crucial for identifying value bets. If you believe the true probability of an outcome is higher than the implied probability, you may have found value.
The Sportsbook's Edge
If you add up the implied probabilities of all outcomes in a market, they'll total more than 100%. The difference is the sportsbook's built-in profit margin (vig). This is how they make money regardless of the outcome.
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